I believe the stalemate scenario is too simplistic. You have to accept some fundamentals.

(1) Ukraine is a core strategic interest of Russia, this will not change - it will always been in there sphere of influence.

(2) Azov sea is now a Russian lake and controls the Northern half of the black sea & its numerous ports.

(3) Long-term strategic stability is not achieved by exhausting the resources of one-side. It took Germany less than 20 years to re-arm itself after the versailles treaty. Russia could do this faster if China wants this to happen.

IMHO Ukraine needs to position itself between the two powers as Khazakstan does between Russia and China. Without some finlandisation or some necessary compromise of Ukraine’s sovereignty you have brittle agreements and no long-term stability.

And therefore no investment, no prosperity and the prospects for 'democracy' are much dimmer.

Russia is able to hold the rest of the world hostage for its oil, its gas and its grain exports. You are talking about millions of starving people here — the world will come begging to Kremlin for stop the blockade.

'What price Ukraine' ?