Ukraine : Biden flushed them

Points which have get lost in the daily news :

Daytona Platinum

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Mar 1, 2022

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Western military experts saw clear plans for full-scale invasion and occupation of Ukraine in February 2021; Ukrainians were making plans for mass-evacuations months before 24th February 2022.

This War started in February 22nd 2014 when the Ukrainians rejected the Yanukovych deal. Since then it has been ongoing. Russian units have been rotating through their positions in Eastern Ukraine for 5 years. The big recent escalation almost exactly 8 years later to the day may not be a coincidence.

Biden was asked by Putin to intervene and give Ukrainians the ‘Minsk’ ultimatum around February c.20th — having given up on Berlin/Paris. Last-minute meetings took place between Lavrov and Blinken. Biden declined to intervene.

Meaning that America formally signalled to Russia that it does not see Ukraine as a vital strategic national interest. China is currently Biden’s no.1 headache; the Indo-Pacific theatre. America is eroding its support for Nato in Europe which it sees as a ‘secondary’ theatre.

The Russians stated their objection to NATO’s Final declaration from the Bucharest summit in April 3rd 2008. “ NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become countries of NATO. “

This was Russia’s Deputy foreign minister’s response to the declaration at the time;“ Georgia’s and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is a huge mistake which will have most serious consequences for pan-European security.” Putin said at the time “ Georgia and Ukraine becoming part of NATO is a direct threat to Russia.”

There has been 14 years for Putin to plan and prepare. His statements on Ukraine are consistent, he has a clear vision. Based on the last 200 years, Russia defends its western flank without compromise or negotiation — its sees Ukraine as its vital strategic interest.

A follow-on, Russia-Nato crisis. “A road of uncertainty in European security.” Much has been taken for granted for 30 years. Outside of Nato the principal military power in Europe is Russia. And if the principle military power in Europe is not a stakeholder in military security that means the entire thing is a lot less stable than it looks.
The problem has been always; “How to give Russia a seat at the table without giving Russia veto power.” There is no institutional solution even with changes of governments. ie. take Putin out of the picture and the problem is still there.

China not interested in Russia-Ukranian war. It is a major trading partner of Ukraine. However it does not mean China would oppose Russia but would distance itself from the conflict and will continue to expand its cooperation with Russia. To reach $200Bn bilateral trade by 2024. China will drive down prices paid for Russian gas. China will enjoy being out of the inhumanitarian limelight during the crisis.

Russia is not trying to conquer Ukraine; Putin is in the process of wrecking Ukraine. And he’s telling the west in very simple terms; you have two choices ;“ You either either back off, and we go back to the status quo anti before 22/Feb/14 where Ukraine is a buffer state. Or, you continue to play these games, where you try and take Ukraine and make it a western bastion on our doorstep, in which case; we’ll wreck the country. “ And they are of course now in the process and they’re going to keep this conflict going for as long as it takes.

Suggested realistic outcome:
Get back to where we were during the Cold War. Donbas becomes GDR, rest of Ukraine becomes like FDR [minus nato]- 1970s solution.

Dividing line in the centre of Europe going thru polish-belaurusian border down to Donetsk and Lugansk. Currently there are no red lines so we might face the prospect of a large war in Europe which must be avoided at any cost.

Ukraine’s job as a buffer-zone must be restored.